Short one today. We’re now into earnings season. What happens in corporate US matters, as the US remains the largest economy in the world and it’s macro picture has a significant impact on perceptions of risk and sentiment in general. Data that surprises could cause short term spikes in volatility, but unless a theme can be divined from earnings or sales data that contradicts the current macro narrative we shouldn’t expect a broader impact. This is the ideal domain for range traders, a highly specialised market, that can be difficult to profit from.

Majors continue to trade within defined ranges. EUR/GBP looks to be approaching first minor resistance levels {0.7970ish}, and with cable (GBP/USD) bouncing off trend-line support, we could see sterling appreciating versus its main crosses, but all of this feels within the context of the ranges. USD/JPY also looks like it could bounce from supports {101.20ish}.

Bigger picture technicals continue to concern me, but I have enough self-awareness to appreciate my personal biases. Some traders are more comfortable in bull markets, others like me prefer bear markets for the winning trade. We all tend to “see” what we want to see. For now we need to continue to monitor the macro-scope, if we identify any factors that could impact the normalisation narrative that dominates then perhaps we (or I) can give in to bias! Rest assured if we spot anything we will update you in our blog.