With the negotiations in Switzerland (US/Iran) and Greece continuing all eyes are now focused on tomorrow’s NFP and Unemployment numbers. Last month saw NFP grow by +295 and unemployment fall to 5.50%. Expectations are that the numbers will be in line with forecasts of +250k and 5.50% (unchanged). I am thinking NFP could surprise again with a print close to +300k as the feel good factor in the US continues to dominate. The USD having rallied to sub 1.07 vs the EUR has shed those gains and fallen back to 1.0825 as I write this. I mentioned yesterday there is not going to be a quick and easy fix to either the M.E or Greek negotiations. I am convinced there must be a great deal of “behind the door” negotiating to try and find a solution and quickly. Things are dragging on and while the subjects of the negotiations are critical to world peace and financial stability one cannot guarantee that a solution will be found. Even Mr. Buffett got in on the act saying Greece leaving the EUR is not necessarily such a bad thing. While I agree 100% with him, it is the potential fall out and catastrophe that will ensue. Banks will go out of business (potentially), companies will struggle, Troika will lose their money and anarchy will reign. Armageddon? Ok maybe I am being a little too dramatic, but after witnessing the loss of Lehman Brothers and Bear Stearns (BOTH at which I worked and admired/loved) this is not a bank going under, this is a Country. So I guess I am a little worried about the fall out.
Then there is the small issue of the UK elections. Tonight sees the second debate with 7 party leaders. As long as Mr Cameron sticks to the game plan by re-iterating The Conservatives brought the UK economy back from the brink, he will have achieved what he set out to do. I am astounded and I mean astounded how any reasonably intelligent person could see the advantage of having someone like Miliband/Balls/Sturgeon in power. If that happens I will personally convert EVERY GBP I possess into USD because the GBP will become an emerging market currency (PARITY GBP/USD anyone)? Those 3 will bankrupt this BEAUTIFUL country and send us back to the financial crisis of 2008. I will pose this question to you, if you had a salary of £1000 a month would you still be going to the pub every night, going on vacations to exotic places, shopping at expensive stores OR would you cut your cloth according to your means. A reasonable person certainly would. The point I am making, austerity is taking place AROUND THE WORLD, US, China, Australia, EU, Canada, Scandinavia, Asia you name it the governing parties/Central banks have tightened their belts and cut overspending. Those 3 “leaders” I mentioned above want to do the opposite. Spend Spend Spend and hand out money to anyone that arrives and asks for it. They must not be allowed to have that chance. Even the people of Scotland voted AGAINST leaving the UK. Doesn’t that tell you everything. G-d only knows how they would have fared had they voted to leave…bet if they had another vote today with oil at $56p.b you would have 350,000 people already voting NO/NON. If I can add my name to the esteemed list of 100 business leaders (oops make that 117 now) that wrote the letter to the Telegraph saying that a Labour Govt. would “threaten jobs and deter investment” I would in a heartbeat. Those giants of business are protecting their businesses and in turn protecting the UK economy not to mention the thousands upon thousands of hard working people they employ.
Ossie and David would like to wish you and your families a happy Easter (weekend) and Chag Sameach.
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