20150427 – DAILY FX MACRO

Good morning

` High Low High Low
EUR/USD 1.0887 1.0838 USD/ZAR 12.1539 12.0800
GBP/USD 1.5191 1.5141 GBP/ZAR 18.46 18.33
EUR/GBP 0.7172 0.7148 USD/RUB 51.47 50.57
USD/JPY 119.28 118.76 USD/NGN 199.2 198.5
GBP/CHF 1.4518 1.4462 S&P 500 2,123 2,117
USD/ILS 3.9317 3.8839 Oil (Brent) 65.51 64.99

With a mere 10 to go before the UK elections the Conservative party have been given a boost as 5,000 small firms back the Conservatives. The Telegraph newspaper reported this morning that the leaders of 5,000 SME’s signed a letter backing Mr Cameron and warned that Labour/SNP would pose a risk to the economic recovery. The firms who employ in excess of 100,000 people across the country stated they “would like to see David Cameron and George Osborne given the chance to finish what they started”. This letter in conjunction with the letter signed by 15 FTSE business CEO’s (who in turn employ in excess over 100,100 people) means that over 200,000 people are now relying on their owners continuing their businesses and in turn keeping them employed (not to mention their families who they support). The letter praised the Conservatives economic plans and said the Tories are “genuinely committed to making sure Britain is open for business”. Furthermore the firms said the Conservatives’ commitment to low taxes has helped “to get the economy moving again” by creating a mouth watering 1,000 jobs a day since 2010. The letter adds “A change now would be far too risky and would undo all the good work of the last 5 years.” Karen Brady writing in the Telegraph warned that “Ed Miliband and his team don’t really get what it is to run a business. If Labour got into government and started wrecking our economy again, many more businesses would struggle and jobs would be lost. It doesn’t bear thinking about. David Cameron and the Conservatives have a clear plan for this country which is already taking us in the right direction.” If you would like to see what it is like to go bankrupt and economic chaos simply pop over to Greece. The country is on its knees and facing economic and financial ruin not to mention the Greek people. This letter should be read and delivered to every home in the United Kingdom. People should read this letter very carefully and decide if they want prosperity or chaos. Surely these letters are enough to make people vote Conservatives on the 7th May. Surely these letters are enough to make people young and old realise that their future and that of their children and their children is dependent on their vote on the 7th May. How much more do they  need to know. There is really no other way to put it, vote Conservatives for financial stability and prosperity, vote Labour (SNP) for financial chaos, bankruptcy and job losses. As I have written previously, you are NOT voting for a party you are voting to keep you family prosperous, healthy and stable. That’s your choice!!

Talking about Greece, Greece has 15 separate debt payments to make between now and the end of July, totalling €16.5bn. These include redemption of its short-term government debt (T-bills), paying down IMF loans, and calling-in maturing bonds held by the ECB. The viability of a default within the EU/EUR would depend on which of these payments are not satisfied. With a payment of €760m due on the 12th May to the IMF, reports have indicated that even if Greece miss this payment the IMF would not immediately trigger a default  and would afford Greece a 30 day grace period. Having said this a failure to pay the IMF would call into question whether Greece can pay the other loans due to the ECB and European Financial Stability Fund. The default scenario will in effect bring into context the state of the banking system. The local banks are the largest holders of Greek government debt and therefore a Greek government default will in all likelihood lead a run on the banks and in turn the complete financial support system in Greece. If the banks go bankrupt this would lead to total financial  default and as the saying goes, you can kiss Greece goodbye. Perhaps Ed Miliband should read what I have written because a Labour/SNP government….my hands are shaking so much I cannot bring myself to write what the consequences for my BELOVED UK would be. I just hope I don’t have to brush the cobwebs off my South African passport (don’t get me wrong I LOVE my birth country but the UK has been my home for the past 18 years). To add to the misery in Greece, Eurozone officials criticised the “amateur” Greek finance minister warning that time is running out to stop Greece going bankrupt. I am sure those officials read our commentary because only a couple weeks ago PARITYFX Plc wrote that that the biggest issue in Greece are the leaders and their INEXPERIENCE in dealing with their financial woes.

Jeroen Dijsselbloem, president of the Eurogroup, said on Friday there were some “big, big problems to be solved” before Greece’s creditors would release badly needed funds to the country. “A comprehensive deal is necessary before any disbursement can take place. We are all aware that time is running out.” Mr Dijsselbloem also admitted negotiations had been tense and at times heated, and followed reports that some Eurozone finance chiefs had accused Mr Varoufakis of wasting time and gambling with Greece’s future. “I can’t tell you how discussions took place, but I’ll be frank, it was a very critical discussion, we came to an agreement two months ago. Today we hoped to hear positive results and an agreement to which we could make a decision, and we are still far from that. So it was a very critical discussion, and it showed a sense of urgency around the room.” As the saying goes if you going into a gunfight, don’t bring a knife. Mr Varoufakis, please sort your country’s finances out so that we can write about something else!!


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