20150507 – THE DAY OF RECKONING

Good morning

High Low High Low
EUR/USD 1.1383 1.1324 USD/ZAR 12.1128 11.9780
GBP/USD 1.5254 1.5197 GBP/ZAR 18.43 18.28
EUR/GBP 0.7475 0.7433 USD/RUB 51.75 49.11
USD/JPY 119.61 119.32 USD/NGN 199.2 198.8
GBP/CHF 1.3977 1.3878 S&P 500 2,083 2,072
USD/ILS 3.8676 3.8346 Oil (Brent) 68.12 67.09

The phrase “The pot calling the kettle black” is an idiom used to claim that a person is guilty of the very thing of which they accuse another. Sky news headline “Greece Slams Creditors as IMF Default Avoided”:  Greece says it has gathered enough cash to make repayments to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) today (6May) but hit out at creditors over protracted negotiations on a new loan deal. The anti-austerity government in Greece, which came to power in January, has previously been accused by its eurozone partners of seeking more cash while offering little compromise in return. As the country runs out of money, Greece said on Wednesday it was in the process of making a €200m payment due to the IMF. But as a 12 May deadline looms for a further €750m repayment, Athens lashed out at its creditors and expressed its own frustration at the state of the bailout negotiations. A government statement said “serious disagreements and contradictions” between the EU and IMF were to blame for the stalemate. “Under these circumstances there can be no compromise. The responsibility belongs exclusively to the institutions and their weakness of communicating with each other,” it continued. The state of the country’s public finances could make Greece ineligible for new help under the IMF’s rules but all sides have said they expect a solution to be found to prevent Greece having to default on its debts and leave the eurozone. No disrespect to Greece (meant) but are they having a laugh!! As Wolfgang Schaeuble (Germany’s Finance Minister) noted Troika are NOT to blame for Greece’s cash rather, rather the country has been “living above its means” (i could not have said it any better). It is a well known fact that the labour and pension laws that exist in Greece are archaic, unfair and due a major overhaul. How the Greeks can expect to retire on a full pension at 50 while the rest of the EU starts at 60 is anybody’s guess. This attack by Greece on her creditors is an insult. Nevertheless Troika took the insult on the chin and went further by boosting its emergency cash to Greece’s banks by €2bn on Wednesday. As we have noted previously, without this cash injections Greece’s banks will simply run out of cash bringing the country to a standstill. Greece should be throwing everything and the kitchen sink by reforming the pension/labour laws and satisfy Troika’s demands. Watch this space, there is still a great deal to come.

The day of reckoning has come. UK goes to the polls in what can only be described as the closest election in years. I for one sincerely hope when the electorate are standing in their cubicles with pencil in hand they CHANGE their vote and go with the party that has DELIVERED economic growth, jobs, wage growth and financial stability. Suffice to say in my humble opinion anything but a Conservative win should see the GBP take a hammering as the market bought the rumour (Conservatives) and sold the fact (Labour wins). We have written many times of the consequences the UK as a whole faces, by this time tomorrow we will have a better idea exactly who will be running the country for the next 5 years. If we are faced with the “red” party, employees brace yourself for job losses, employers brace yourself to hold on to what you have built. That is the choice the UK electorate face today. GBP opens relatively “calm” trading at 1.5170 and 0.7480 as I write this. As the exit polls are announced later in the day/evening you can be rest assured those levels will be a distant memory. Good luck

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