The big news over the past week was undoubtedly the FED meeting where the FED has left the door wide open to a POSSIBLE rate hike in September as the US economy continues to grow (+2.3%) and improving jobs sentiment. FED members voted unanimously to keep rates on hold on Wednesday but hinted that a rate hike (for over 6 years) was imminent. In fact Gov Carney of the BoE has also hinted that rates in the UK are also being primed for a hike citing early 2016 as a possible date. As history and experience tells me, the US are generally always the FIRST to get the hiking season started and we are expecting possibly 2 hikes by the FED this year, starting in September (17th) and followed in December (16th). As the Greek issue moves from page 1 to somewhere in the middle of our daily newspapers, the FED can now concentrate on doing what they do best, concentrate on getting the US economy to levels where growth is sustainable and growing on its own without the intervention of the FED (QE). This is indeed good news as we know the world’s economies are for all intents reliant on a growing US economy. In fact I am almost certain even the Chinese (who have endured a horrific period of poor growth (7%) are cheering because the feelgood will be felt globally. Ample warnings have been given and it is now imperative that companies and households start to prepare for a period of higher interest rates.
A story that is starting to gather momentum is the possibility that criminal charges (including treason) will be brought against Greece’s former FM Varoufakis following revelations of a secret plan to establish an alternative currency in the event of the country leaving the EU. The Greek parliament is currently examining an array of complaints brought by private citizens against Varoufakis. It is no wonder really considering so many highly influential negotiators told PM Tsipras they wanted nothing to do with Varoufakis and in fact HE was the one that was stalling and causing the negotiations to grind to a halt. It was no wonder then he was fired (stepped down) by Tsipras. Either way where there is smoke there is fire so I would not be surprised to see Varoufakis end up in a courtroom. Of course he has immunity like all parliamentarians, so it will be up to the Greek parliament to overturn this immunity and allow the courts to prosecute. For now Greece has done what they have been asked but no doubt this story is simply hibernating until the next bailout cash is due and then we are back to the races. With the imminent hike in rates in the US and possibly Greece drawn back into the GREXIT/GREXIN debate, the sure winner will be the mighty USD, and so it is in my opinion that EURUSD at PARITY will become more of a reality come Q3-Q4 2015. So confident I am, unlike most other banks commentaries for PARITY in 2016, I am sailing alone and predicting that we will see PARITY before the doors shut for new years eve 2015…..the dice is cast…..
Interesting article in the Daily Mail this morning “Currency providers’ zero commission claims are ‘phony’: Money transfer firm warns customers feel ripped off by forex fees hidden in poor exchange rates” – FX firms offering unfavourable exchange rates to make a profit by offering 0% commissions or “free” transfers. In fact these companies are making massive profits by charging these customers up to 5% between the spot market and the rates the customers is offered. In fact exchanging cash at the airport costs customers over 10%….sometimes even 20%….with the argument being it is the price you pay for not exchanging earlier. PARITYFX DOES NOT CHARGE COMMISSIONS & TRANSFER FEES PERIOD. OUR CUSTOMERS USE US BECAUSE THEY SIMPLY CANNOT FIND A BETTER FX RATE ANYWHERE ON THE STREET – FACT. OTHER FX BROKERS WHO PURPORT TO OFFER A FLAT FEE ARE NOT BEING FACTUAL BECAUSE THE RATE CAN CHANGE BETWEEN WHEN THE DEAL IS ENTERED INTO AND DELIVERY TAKES PLACE. AT PARITYFX WE PRIDE OURSELVES ON BEING THE BEST FX RATE PERIOD. PARITYFX OWNERS HAVE OVER 40 YEARS COLLECTIVELY IN THE FINANCIAL MARKETS AND PRIDE OURSELVES ON BEING PROFESSIONAL AND HONEST. YOU WILL SIMPLY NOT FIND A BETTER RATE WHEN YOU EXCHANGE YOUR MONEY. In fact on a recent trip to Spain a friend exchanged £10,000 into Eur with a leading FX broker at 1.3925 which he said was the absolute best rate he could find (he uses them a great deal). When I told him had he used PARITYFX he would have got 1.4200, he realised that the best was in fact FAR from the truth.
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