The big news of course remains CHINA,. Can it be the slowdown is now affecting the US. Non-Farm payroll (NFP) numbers were published last Friday which showed ANOTHER disappointing number with new job creating just +142k jobs.
This number has now fallen for the past 4 months from a high printed in June of +280k, it then dropped to +223k, +215k, +173k and now +142k…a worrying sign no doubt for the FED/FOMC I am sure. The worry is if this becomes a TREND the FED will simply HAVE TO WAIT longer before they hike US interest rates. NFP is in the top 3 most important indicators that the FED and global market traders look for when trading and policy setting. The USD got a hammering after this number was reported with EURUSD spiking over 1.13 and GBPUSD close to 1.5250 – it has since settled back into the range but this disappointing number is a WORRY that is for sure. On the flip side, Stocks liked the number with markets globally rallying on the back of the weak NFP number (and possible US rate hike delay).
With China slowing things down globally if the ripple effects are now hitting the US shores be rest assured the FED will not want to upset the apple cart and raise rates (December is the next target date). They would prefer to wait until the NFP (and wage growth/retail sales/inflation) is “strong enough” to counter any negative NFP implication. But the fact that the number has now fallen for the 4th straight month remains a worry. It remains to be seen how the FED comment on this over the coming days and whether they confirm the issue I have, that the weak NFP is becoming a trend rather than a blip or seasonal anomaly.
POOR UK SERVICES PMI just published – 53.3 vs previous 55.6 and expected 56.00: GBPUSD has taken a knock falling from 1.5225 as number published to 1.5175 as I write this….seems disappointing data is creeping back into the UK economy as well pointing to a further possible delay by Gov. Carney and the BoE (to raising UK interest rates).
Worrying times ahead no doubt the China slowdown is having a marked effect globally now. And there we were all thinking we were past the 2008 financial crisis ….
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