Good morning

SUPER US CPI data announced yesterday (remember we spoke of this in yesterday’s comment). 0.10% was expected and +0.2% was published. USD liked the number which saw EURUSD rally below 1.14 handle. Initially GBPUSD fell to 1.52 but once calm was restored the GBP recovered back to where we started (just shy of 1.55). I know you must be thinking what are my views on the USD from here..If i am completely forthcoming I think the remainder of 2015 will see the USD remain in the current range and trend weaker. Even if we see a surprise in NFP I think the bigger picture for now is China and unless there is a proper turnaround there the FED will in all likelihood delay hiking until Q1 2016. Having said this FED futures responded to the increase in CPI by increasing the “odds” of a December rate hike to 30% (+3% on the previous count). There is the small matter of a FOMC meeting in 2 weeks time (28th) though we expect no change then. So it is all to play for in December, but really a 0.25% hike is neither here nor there in the big picture so I expect the FED to wait rather and hope for an improvement in overall sentiment both home and abroad.

For this morning the big data is EU CPI –> last print was -0.10% and the market is expecting a repeat of last month -0.10%. Again any diversion from this will see an initial knee jerk reaction either up or down. In my opinion given what we have seen recently the chances are  the market will be right and CPI will remain negative (deflation) just like we saw this past week in the UK. Falling food and energy prices are keeping CPI in check. I think it will only be once China starts showing signs of higher growth and demand that a change in CPI will start to be registered.

Monday sees China publish their GDP numbers for Q3 (3am).

You can see last print was 7% while the market was now expecting +6.8%….a reprint of anything over 6.8% will be seen and VERY POSITIVE and that is likely to see the USD rally and stocks fall as the FED futures will see another increase from 30% currently. This is a BIG BIG number because Q3 includes the recent multiple rate cuts AND currency devaluation. So the PBoC will be biting their nails to see if those changes had a GOOD or NEUTRAL effect on the economy.

FED member  Dudley stated: “If the economy performs in line with my forecast, I would favour lifting off later this year. But it’s a forecast. It’s not a commitment,” Dudley said.  He added “sometimes the forecasts are right, and sometimes the forecasts are wrong.” “The recent economic news suggests the economy is slowing, and we have these developments in China and emerging-market economies that could develop in a way” that could come back and hurt the U.S. economy and inflation, Dudley said. “When I put it all together, I still see an economy that’s growing a bit above trend. And if that is the case, we should see greater pressure over time on resources. And if that is the case, then we should be able to begin to normalize monetary policy.” FED member Mester said that the U.S. economy “can handle” an increase in interest rates despite the risks around the outlook. “It is appropriate for monetary policy to take a step back from the emergency measure of zero interest rates”. Mester said interest rates should move up gradually.

Have a great weekend and (GOOOOOO BOKKKE)

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Good morning

Recent data from the US coupled with increasingly disappointing data from China has left the FED backed into a corner. FED futures have now priced a “no chance” of a US rate hike in December, with the first hike now pointing to April 2016.

Weaker retail sales, Industrial production and NFP (jobs) coupled with a “strong” USD have started to have an effect on the US economy resulting in a change in the rhetoric from FED members and economists (including the IMF and World Bank). The fallout from China is starting to bite hard leaving Central Banks with no other option other than to WAIT before hiking rates. Negative inflation in the UK (-0.10%) was the big news of the week and not even the drop in unemployment and wage growth could help matters. Initially the GBP dropped to 1.52 before recovering over the past 36 hours on the back of disappointing US and China data. This story is getting bigger and bigger and I have no doubt the coming months will mean trading conditions remain tough.

US CPI numbers to be published later today with the market expecting a 0.1% rise (from last months +0.10%). This is an important data release because the FED have openly announced the importance of inflation (increasing) so anything under 0.10% will be seen as further evidence of a slowdown in the US and a delay in hiking rates.

“If the euro can’t go down on the Volkswagen story, and the euro can’t go down on the Greek story, it should be telling you something,” said David Bloom, global head of FX research at HSBC. “The Fed is not as hawkish as people thought [it] would be and the ECB is not as dovish as people think [it] should be,” he said. “The monetary-policy differential is actually closing and that’s favouring the euro.” In other words the delay in hiking rates in the US and the China slowdown is playing into the EUR’s hands and providing support. Recently we have seen more and more FX traders piling into the EUR with additional gains expected over the coming months. If US CPI disappoints today, be rest assured the USD will get hit hard again.

EM currencies have enjoyed a respite and appreciated on the back of the weaker USD. The S.African ZAR for example has appreciated over 7.50% from the low on 29 September which gives you an idea on how sensitive EM currencies are to changes in the USD. Further USD weakness will see further EM strength.

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Yet another nail in the coffin for interest rate normalisation yesterday as year on year CPI in the UK went into negative territory. Granted this is just one inflation measure, and not really the one usually focussed upon, but there’s nothing like a negative headline number to dampen interest rate expectations. Not surprisingly the pound took a beating yesterday – by early afternoon GBP/USD had dropped from close to 1.54 to 1.52. It is currently recovering, but there is a distinct possibility that this won’t last for long. As I’ve said in recent weeks I fear GBP will likely underperform USD and EUR in the coming months.

While the Bank of England and the Federal Reserve in the United States are retreating from their plans to normalise policy, it’s worth pointing out that these are not the only economies where weaker prices are being published. Last month Spain shocked the macro world with much more negative inflation than expected, and a recent revision, while a little less grim was still deeply negative. In France prices don’t appear to be changing on an annualised basis. It’s worth pointing out that wholesale inflation in India remains in deeply negative territory (WPI has tended to be the main inflation measure in India, presumably because the history of the series is more substantive than more consumer oriented measures). Furthermore, Chinese inflation rises are decelerating quite sharply as well. The spectre of disinflation, or deflation if you have a flair for the dramatic, is quite pervasive globally, even if we are clearly still feeling the ripples from the energy price collapse last year. I should make it clear – with regards to the UK numbers – that core CPI was comfortably in positive territory which keeps me believing that we’re not going to be freaking out about falling prices for very long. By the way, pensioners will now be getting a better deal, as their fixed incomes are looking a little bit healthier if the prices in their consumption baskets are falling (if!!!), who says falling prices are a bad thing? The bottom line is that any weakness in either GBP or USD due to a re-assessment of interest rate hikes is purely based on changing expectations. Other central banks are steadfastly in easing territory and will remain there for a far longer time.

There was other ugly data yesterday, with a very uninspiring set of ZEW data published in Germany. German current conditions looked awful, and sentiment appears to have fallen off a cliff. But as I’ve maintained over the last few weeks the underlying data in the US and UK still looks reasonable to me, and small business optimism in the US reflects this with further gains according to the data yesterday. Later on today we get industrial production numbers out of the Eurozone, Italian inflation numbers, a host of labour market data in the UK and retail sales data in the United States. These will further add to the picture, which seems to be pointing towards an easing of financial conditions pretty much across the board that will set up a revival in activity in the months ahead. I wager that as we move through earnings season there will be plenty of opportunities to increase equities exposure as the conditions are being set for a fairly decent risk rally. My expectation of a rally is of course based on the assumption that what we are currently seeing is actually not that serious, more mid-cycle than end cycle. Time will tell…

Yesterday’s high in cable, 1.5388, represents a fairly important level now. Unless GBP/USD is able to hurdle this level, the bias has to be for further weakening. 1.1460 is the level to watch for EUR/USD, but I have very low conviction on where we go from here, EUR/USD may well still be deep within a complex corrective pattern. GBP weakness therefore represents relatively low hanging fruit as views go, as does the expectation of a continuing recovery for emerging market currencies. We will continue to monitor the markets on your behalf, and report via back our blog and twitter account (@parityfxplc).

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More evidence that the FOMC is moving further away from an interest rate rise came from a speech from one of the Fed governors Lael Brainard. Her view is that risks to growth and inflation are tilted to the downside and therefore hiking would be a risk given the limited room to manoeuvre if a reversal of strategy is later required. Arguably you could say the same if the US economy deteriorates from here (unlikely in my view, as I’ve mentioned recently, this looks like a mid-cycle slowdown. The fact that jobless claims keep trending lower is supportive of that!). I do agree with her contention that the stronger dollar has delivered a monetary tightening already, she postulates the effect has been as much as two rate hikes (0.25% x 2).

Overnight we saw some fairly awful trade data published in China, imports fell 20%, exports fell as well, but only 4% and by less than forecast. It’s the imports number that’s an eye opener, as it clearly points to very weak domestic demand conditions. It is therefore no surprise that economists are now as bearish of the Chinese economy as at any time since the Global Financial Crisis (GFC). Q3 growth data is due early next week and the consensus is for sub 7% growth which is lower than the official target (although a spokesman for the statistics bureau has pointed out that sub 7% could still be described as around 7%, fair enough!). I don’t need to tell you, but whatever data we get, the reality is likely to be worse. Besides I think this is what we’ve been seeing this year, the collateral impact on economies (and commodities markets) which have become dependent on the Chinese economy has been obvious to all.

Later this morning we’ll see inflation numbers published for the UK economy, the expectation is for a slight rise in core CPI. We should also get German ZEW economic sentiment data and later in the evening another FOMC member – Bullard – will speak. All of these events should significantly add to our understanding of the current macro situation. No matter how the data looks, I have a suspicion that we have probably seen the worst of the bad data, it usually tends to be the case that when the market starts to obsess about how good or bad the data is we are already at an inflection point.

It’s been a fairly ugly day already for emerging market currencies, but then that should surprise no one given the Chinese trade data. From a technical standpoint it still looks as if the worst has passed for this asset class, and the fact that commodities markets look to be basing is supportive of this view. The pound sterling – assuming my current view is right – has probably completed the majority of its counter-trend move against the dollar. I am still of the view that the pound will be a significant underperformer in the near future, but I’ll be honest, if we get a strong inflation surprise that could blow my view clean out of the water. For now I continue to look for GBP to be weaker versus USD and EUR into year end.

1.1466 is a key level to watch for EUR/USD, a move higher could signal a continuation of the complex corrective pattern that’s been in force since March. We are probably reaching a mature stage for a bigger picture correction, but a new post-March EUR/USD high is entirely feasible before a bigger picture dollar bull trend re-asserts. The narrative for such a scenario would be obvious, a complete retreat by the Federal Reserve from rate hikes. I’m not sure we’ll see that, given the underlying health of the US economy, but as always we’ll keep an open mind and assess the macro data. Anything we see that could adversely impact the still solid story in the United States will be passed on to you forthwith.

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Good morning

Casting your eyes over the high/low’s above you can see just how tight the majors and EM currencies traded overnight (and European open). Reason, very little fundamental events to drive the currencies one way or another.

FX volatility remains pretty stagnant with EURUSD trading 1m 9.25/9.50, 6m 9.40/9.60 and 1y 9.45/9.70, while in GBPUSD 1m 6.80/7.10, 6m 6.90/7.20 and 1y 7.85/8.10 while EURGBP trades at a premium to the latter with 1m 8.75/9.15, 6m 8.60/8.85 and 1y 8.70/8.95 – you can see the pattern here, the “EUR” is the driving force behind both EURUSD and EURGBP trading at a premium to GBPUSD which has not budged over the past week. Traders believe there is more risk from the EUR and therefore EURXXX vol remains bid. I must tell you I think EURUSD vol should (and has already) started to show signs of cracking given the latest rhetoric from the FED and the likelihood (or not in this case) of a US rate hike in December. FX traders are increasingly becoming “bullish” the EUR and therefore with the risk reversal (RR) showing a premium for EUR PUTS (over EUR CALLS) , when the currency (EUR) appreciates volatility levels should start to come down and the RR premium (puts over calls) should trend to flat for the time being.

Overnight saw the Chinese stock market rally +3% (don’t get too excited yet) supported by signs of improved consumer growth and the PBoC expanding its asset lending programme to 11 provinces from 2 previously. Bear in mind we have said many times, the PBoC are going to throw everything at Chinese growth and this is yet another “programme” to kick start the economy. I have NOT ruled out and still call for FURTHER rate cuts and currency devaluation. You heard it first here.

Key economic events to watch this week include speeches by Atlanta FED President Lockhart (FOMC voter) and Chicago FED President Evans (FOMC voter) on the US economic outlook and monetary policy (Monday), China’s September trade (Tuesday) and inflation data (Wednesday), EU area Industrial Production (Wednesday) and final September inflation data (Friday) and US retail sales (Wednesday), CPI – inflation (Thursday) and Industrial Production (Friday). Key numbers for sure, but really all eyes now on China and 28 October FOMC meeting. This is what matters most to FX traders and so the coming weeks I expect the FX ranges to stay intact awaiting fresh data and events.

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Good morning

Was it something I said?

Only 3 days ago we wrote FIRST that the likelihood of a FED rate hike this year has diminished considerably after recent disappointing NFP (jobs) data and inflation from the US coupled with the increasing slowdown in China. This was then CONFIRMED by the FED yesterday in the FOMC minutes when the Pres. of the FOMC Yellen noted concerns around Chinese growth, static inflation and a downturn in job creation in the US were the reasons why they kept rates on hold in September and why rates are now likely to stay on hold through 2015. The news sent the USD lower vs the majors and gave EM currencies a boost, not to mention a rally on the stock markets globally.

At the same time the BoE published their interest rate decision (unchanged) and the minutes were published. As previously the vote was 8-1.  A former member of the BoE’s Monetary Policy Committee Andrew Sentance told the BBC that he thinks it’s important to start gradually hiking rates again otherwise it will damage economic growth. He has already said this a few times before and also wrongly predicted that back in August that “2-3 members of the MPC would vote for a rate hike. Only one person voted for a rise in rates. “We have independent central banks because they are meant to be courageous, they are meant to try and get ahead of the curve, they are meant to do things that politicians might find difficult and they don’t seem to be behaving that way at the moment. You have to start raising them (rates) before the red lights start flashing.” He added that now more than ever, the UK needs to start gradually raising rates because of the uncertainty caused by the FED holding rates at 0.00-0.25% adding ” it is not really very good for the economy.”  In August, prominent Bank of England member Kristin Forbes warned that the central bank must hike rates soon or face damaging the progress Britain has made over the last few years. “An increase in interest rates is generally believed to take somewhere from one to two years to have its maximum impact. Maintaining interest rates at the current low levels during an expansion risks creating distortions. Therefore, interest rates will need to be increased well before inflation hits our 2% target. Waiting too long would risk undermining the recovery – especially if interest rates then need to be increased faster than the gradual path which we expect. But with inflation starting from about zero today, there is no need to act before we are confident that inflation is heading back toward 2% within about two years as expected.”

In my humble opinion, while I have much respect for both Sentance and Forbes, I disagree with them both. I think the world has entered a very precarious and dangerous period unlike the financial crisis of 2008-2014. China plays a pivotal role in global growth and prosperity and with China now showing increasing strains and little in the way of a comeback, CB’s need to be ultra careful not to pour fuel on the fire and ignite a capital shift out of China and into the UK or US (had they raised rates). Coupled with falls in inflation, jobs growth and commodity/energy/food prices, we are now facing a very different problem to the one that prevailed at the start of the Bear Stearns/Lehman Brothers/AIG/Merrill Lynch fiasco.

Getting back to the USD then, as I wrote earlier this week, it looks like the USD is increasingly likely come under pressure over the coming months as the threat of rates hike in the US and UK is pushed back. Good news then for EM currencies who until recently were obliterated. Respite and breathing space is always a good thing and let’s hope for more of the same.

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Earlier this week PepsiCo warned that full year core earnings would take an 11% hit from FX translation effects (a global company like Pepsi generates profits all over the world and for accounting purposes is required to report the dollar value of those earnings when they publish their accounts, it is the translation of those earnings into dollars which is in question here), they will not be alone as the dollar has appreciated mightily against most currencies in 2015. For example the dollar is almost 13% stronger than the Mexican peso today than it was at the start of the year. Imagine if a US company had increased profits by 3% in its Mexican subsidiary year to date, after translation effects that profit gain would look like a 10% loss in dollar terms. This would have been less of a problem if these companies employed appropriate hedging strategies, and let’s be clear, this affects companies large and small. If your company is subject to the vagaries of the currency markets then perhaps you should give us a call and we might be able to assist you, it is after all, what we do!

Japanese machinery orders published overnight looked fairly horrific with a year on year decline of 3.5% versus forecasts of a 4.2% gain and +2.8% previously. That’s just plain ugly! And German trade data that came out earlier this morning isn’t doing anything to improve the beauty stakes, both imports and exports declined, but exports fell by more, 5.2% to be exact. Compare that to economist expectations of a 1.2% decline and you see the problem. It’s really tough out there right now, and Germany with its sizeable exposure to emerging markets was always going to be a victim in this sort of environment. The only positive is that the German consumer appears to be picking up the slack although the import numbers don’t exactly confirm that! The bottom line is that yet again we see signs of a tough environment for the global economy at the moment. I do however think that a lot of what we are seeing now is just a reflection of the turmoil we have seen in emerging market currencies over the last few quarters, this is a lagging indicator if you will. Perhaps we can look forward to more positive outcomes in the near future as commodities markets do appear to be basing.

Looking at the currency markets today, GBP/USD is correcting higher as expected, aided it seems by some strong industrial production data published yesterday. This UK data seems to have bucked the recent spate of lacklustre manufacturing news coming out of major economies, but as I mentioned yesterday I believe we are looking at nothing more dramatic than a mid-cycle slowdown. Here’s a cable chart I put together yesterday from an Elliott Wave perspective. As you must know by now I am very bearish cable.

If my analysis is correct we are at most just days away from the start of a significant fall in GBP/USD which could see the currency pair move towards 1.40ish. Given the prevailing market situation it is entirely possible that the narrative will be more about sterling weakness than dollar strength to start with, but that could easily change over time. Only if my technicals are correct of course, time will tell.

Early this afternoon the ECB publishes an account of its monetary policy meeting and the Bank of England votes on interest rates. No one is expecting anything dramatic from the MPC, with most looking for a vote of 8 unchanged to 1 member pushing for a hike.

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The evidence of a mid-cycle dip in global activity is becoming overwhelming, just this week we’ve seen sentiment and activity data in the UK, Eurozone, Germany, Spain, Canada and the United States all failing to meet economist expectations. And don’t forget the disappointing non-farm payrolls labour market data published in the U.S at the end of last week. Weeks ago we observed the poor data coming out of East Asia and it seems the wave has had sufficient power to now be washing against western shores. In my view there is nothing in the data to suggest any more than a mid-cycle dip, there certainly doesn’t appear to be anything systemic that should exercise us at this point. Truth be told we have often seen periods like this in global expansions, so I would expect that global activity will accelerate again in the months ahead. If it doesn’t then we are certainly in a bad spot, as I’ve mentioned several times, major central banks are all operating around the zero bound for interest rates so any crisis would have to be dealt with by extraordinary monetary policy. At that point, about the only thing worth holding would be gold! But as I’ve said I don’t think this is what is happening. Still it would be remiss of me not to point out that the IMF, just this week, published a report forecasting that global growth this year would be the slowest it’s been since the financial crisis. The primary culprit seems to be weaker commodity prices and higher debt levels in some of the major emerging market economies, and China of course.

What does this all mean for currencies? I would suggest that most of this is already being discounted in the currency markets. Emerging market currencies have been under severe pressure for the last few months after all, with some as weak as at any time for many years. Furthermore the Federal Reserve’s hesitation has slowed the ascent of the greenback and could continue to do so. Relative performance is likely to be guided by the relative economic performance of the various economies. This could bode well for the euro, think of it this way.. everyone is used to hearing bad things about the Eurozone economy, and so disappointments in the United States and United Kingdom will have a disproportionately bigger impact. As I mentioned earlier on in this post, I don’t see this as anything more than a mid-cycle dip, thus at some point the economies leading the cycle – UK & US – are likely to pick up steam and put rate normalisation firmly back on the agenda.

From a technical point of view, it appears that GBP/USD is rather belatedly doing what I expected weeks ago. As I said then a recovery to the 1.53 – 54 level was feasible, but I still remain bearish the pound sterling. I continue to expect EUR/GBP to trend higher, and GBP/USD to trend lower, but a counter-trend move in either case looks likely before my bigger picture view is fulfilled. For now, major assets appeared to be in a counter-trend situation with equities rallying somewhat, but it really does look as if we’ll see another leg lower before all is said and done. Perhaps this would fit in with a continuing paradigm of weaker equities = weaker dollar. Once that is done, the big dollar rally and the equity bull market should re-assert…

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Good morning

The market appears to have run out of “fundamental events” today with the FX ranges overnight trading in a tight range. As things stand the wait is on until Thursday at least when the minutes of the September FOMC meeting are published, and the ECB rate decision is announced (no change expected and no post conference scheduled).

As far as the FOMC minutes are concerned, expect some fireworks as the FOMC detail why they paused on the 17th September and kept rates unchanged. As i spoke in length yesterday, if economic conditions remain as they are over the coming months (slowdown in jobs, pegged inflation etc etc) one cannot help but think the FOMC could surprise again and hold rates at 0.00-0.25%. There is the small matter of a FOMC meeting on the 27/28 October, however we are not expecting Pres. Yellen to shock us. All eyes are rather on the December 15/16 meeting where it will again be the date the watch. If you asked me now what I thought, I would answer there is at least a 60% chance the FOMC will hold again. As China’s growth falls to 5% (shame) US jobs in a downtrend and inflation not going anywhere, the FOMC will have no other option but to hold. They cannot risk raising rates in an environment that can only be described as “shaky”. We might very well have moved on from the “financial crisis” of 2008, but that has been replaced by the “economic crisis” of 2015. While the situation in Greece has disappeared from the papers, it has now been replaced by an even bigger story, the slowdown in China. The former was a battle between politicians while the latter is a battle between supply and demand and thus cannot be “controlled”.

With the event risk behind us for now, FX volatility rates have fallen across the curve. EURUSD 1m 9.55/9.85, 3m 9.60/9.80 and 1y9.70/9.90 while GBPUSD 1m 6.80/7.10, 3m 6.90/7.20 and 1y 7.75/8.00 (GBPUSD=EURGBP VOL which is a rare sight to behold). The fact of the matter is if one looks at EURUSD (FX) we have been stuck in the range since mid August (excl the sudden spike to 1.16 and back as quick). The reason why vols have not fallen more (as you would expect when in a range) is the China situation and risk of a rate change in the US is too delicate and can cause sudden gaps in the FX rate. Hence option traders are more inclined to stay slightly long vol as a way of protecting against any sudden announcement. On the flip side GBP vol have been smashed despite the very precarious place the GBPUSD finds itself. I have noted a few days ago, I think GBP(USD) is on its way back to the lows of 1.45’s given the BoE are likely to further delay any rate hike, not to mention the recent disappointing data (excl wage growth). So ask me my thoughts on GBPUSD and my answer is come December the “handle” will be different to what you are seeing now. So those LONG USD, my opinion, stick with them.

Lastly, The RBA (Australia) left rates unchanged. The AUDUSD on the other hand has been hit hard over the past couple months given the close relationship with China. Then again so has the CAD and NZD

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Good day

The big news of course remains CHINA,. Can it be the slowdown is now affecting the US. Non-Farm payroll (NFP) numbers were published last Friday which showed ANOTHER disappointing number with new job creating just +142k jobs.

This number has now fallen for the past 4 months from a high printed in June of +280k, it then dropped to +223k, +215k, +173k and now +142k…a worrying sign no doubt for the FED/FOMC I am sure. The worry is if this becomes a TREND the FED will simply HAVE TO WAIT longer before they hike US interest rates. NFP is in the top 3 most important indicators that the FED and global market traders look for when trading and policy setting. The USD got a hammering after this number was reported with EURUSD spiking over 1.13 and GBPUSD close to 1.5250 – it has since settled back into the range but this disappointing number is a WORRY that is for sure. On the flip side, Stocks liked the number with markets globally rallying on the back of the weak NFP number (and possible US rate hike delay).

With China slowing things down globally if the ripple effects are now hitting the US shores be rest assured the FED will not want to upset the apple cart and raise rates (December is the next target date). They would prefer to wait until the NFP (and wage growth/retail sales/inflation) is “strong enough” to counter any negative NFP implication. But the fact that the number has now fallen for the 4th straight month remains a worry. It remains to be seen how the FED comment on this over the coming days and whether they confirm the issue I have, that the weak NFP is becoming a trend rather than a blip or seasonal anomaly.

POOR UK SERVICES PMI just published – 53.3 vs previous 55.6 and expected 56.00: GBPUSD has taken a knock falling from 1.5225 as number published to 1.5175 as I write this….seems disappointing data is creeping back into the UK economy  as well pointing to a further possible delay by Gov. Carney and the BoE (to raising UK interest rates).

Worrying times ahead no doubt the China slowdown is having a marked effect globally now. And there we were all thinking we were past the 2008 financial crisis ….

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Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice and may differ or be contrary to the opinions or recommendations of ParityFX. Unless stated specifically otherwise, this is not a recommendation, offer or solicitation to buy or sell and any prices or quotations contained herein are indicative only. To the extent permitted by law, ParityFX does not accept any liability arising from the use of this communication.

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