One could argue that like Leicester’s UNBELIEVABLE win in the Premiership, THE DONALD’s rise has been in political terms, meteoric and UNBELIEVABLE in its own right. With Ted Cruz pulling out the race last night, Bloomberg is declaring Mr Trump the winner of the Republicans Presidential nominee race (after winning again in Indiana). One cannot argue that this year’s Presidential race has been incredible, dirty, amazing and outright off the scales. Who would have thought after the controversial comments throughout his campaign, THE DONALD would still be standing, let alone be the winner. No doubt those voting for Mr Trump (Republicans) are looking for a change in the norm and thinking perhaps having a “businessman” running the country the USA will once again be seen as the no. 1 saviour of the globe (economically politically and safety). The hope is MS Clinton will win the Democratic nomination and come November the fight will be on between 2 vastly different nominees. I for one will be glued to the TV watching the results as they come in. Regardless of what the pundits say (and DID THEY GET IT WRONG IN THE PREMIERSHIP) THE DONALD cannot be written off. You simply have to admire the man, should we call him TEFLON DONALD?
The RBA cut rates yesterday by 0.25% to historical low of 1.75% as information showed inflationary pressures were lower than expected (gosh, the SARB would love to see that) and the housing market (prices) cooled allowing the RBA to act. Let’s be honest, the decision to cut rates wasn’t a case of IF but WHEN. We now know the WHEN. The likelihood is the RBA will now sit on their hands in the hope that inflation starts to creep up, and signs of wage growth start to creep into the labour force. On this basis, you could and should see the AUD start to show signs of further weakness vs her main trading partners. Of course the Aussies are still hoping the Chinese turn the corner given that AUD-CNY are their main trading partners. Then again, it is not only the Aussies that are hoping for a Chinese rebound, the FED too have made it clear that global positioning makes it impossible at the moment to raise rates at present.
The GBP had a Super Tuesday rising through 1.47 barrier, only be clawed back (aggressively) on the back of profit taking. The EU Referendum will continue to play havoc with the GBP over the coming couple of months until we know whether the UK electorate has decided to STAY or GO. Following President Obama’s visit and call to STAY, the bookmakers have cut their odds of LEAVING from 24% to 26%. GBP volatility remains elevated with risk reversals still heavily skewed in favour of GBP PUTS (despite the GBP rally over the past few weeks). Next week’s London Mayoral elections will have some bearing on the GBP in that Labour and the Conservatives have vastly different views in how their budgets will be spent (and which will have knock on effects within the financial sector). As the powerhouse of England (and the UK) investors will no doubt be keeping close tabs on what the outcome is. The hope is Zak will continue where Boris left off, and the electorate sees that having the Conservatives back makes financial sense.
The USD remains on the back foot after a series of disappointing economic data and confirmation that the FED are on the sidelines. EURUSD continues to trade over 1.15 (as I write this), while the GBPUSD has fallen from over 1.47 yesterday to trade at 1.4550 presently. USDJPY has also been battered and is described amongst traders as a collapse, to 106.50 – a fall of over 4% in recent weeks. With the latest BoJ news, traders decided it was time to buy the JPY with the risk of negative depo rates becoming more and more a reality.
Volatility is back my friends!!!!
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