Crude prices rose on Friday after losses of more than 3 percent a day earlier, with investors treading cautiously ahead of key U.S. employment data that will help gauge the health of the world’s largest economy and oil consumer.

South Africa’s rand recouped some of its previous session’s losses on Thursday, while stocks closed slightly lower led by a weaker financial.

Nigeria raised 212.85 billion naira ($654.92 million) in an auction of treasury bills on Wednesday, with yields little changed from previous sales, data from the Debt Management Office showed on Thursday. Meanwhile the NGN has hit yet another year low at 424 as the CBN continues to make it very expensive for importers and companies/individuals looking to buy foreign currency. No end in sight to this recent devaluation.

Let me start by saying I did not have prior knowledge of the UK manufacturing PMI that was published yesterday. You saw in my comments yesterday I said I thought the GBP would trade through 1.3200 (at the time GBPUSD 1.3130) and trade through it did. When the PMI was published the GBP rose 0.98% to trade at 1.3260. Then towards the European close the GBP actually broke 1.33 at one point before profit taking brought us back to 1.3270 where the market is currently trading. Now let’s not get ahead of ourselves. Yes August was a super month and not since March 2009 has the PMI jumped by 5 points month/month. Brexit was done and businesses knew they simply had to get used to the fact. However and this is a big HOWEVER Brexit has not started. It is like commissioning to build a super yacht but you have not seen the prints on what it looks like. It could be the Pelorus or a Dinghy.

In other words we have not started negotiating our exit so how on earth do we know what the terms or financial fall-out will be. So yes as things stand its business as usual but that I can assure will change massively once the interested parties sit down and negotiate the terms of our exit. Therefore it is only then that we will know just how bad (or good) Brexit is going to be for the UK economy. I can assure you one thing, it will not be easy sailing and I have a feeling the EU are going to play hardball. Why would they give us the same advantages being a member as those as a non-member. Just ask the Canadians. It will get very very ugly.

For now and at least till 1.30pm when the US publishes NFP the GBP will trade sideways awaiting the number that could quite possibly set the tone for the USD for the next few months. Expecting +180k a number well above +200K will set the USD on fire as traders and economists will be thinking that was the last piece of the puzzle that the FED were looking for to raise rates on the 21^st Sept.  I still think they should hold back until after the US elections and rather (if the numbers match up) hike 0.50% on 14^th Dec. That would be the best of both worlds.

Have a great weekend

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