20160909- DAILY FX COMMENT

  High Low     High Low
EUR/USD 1.1285 1.1259   USD/ZAR 14.27 14.10
GBP/USD 1.3337 1.3291   GBP/ZAR 19.01 18.76
EUR/GBP 0.8477 0.8458   USD/ILS 3.7600 3.7400
GBP/EUR 1.1823 1.1797   S&P 500 2182 2175
USD/JPY 102.50 101.96   Oil (Brent) 50.15 49.43
GBP/AUD 1.7457 1.7377   Gold 1339.0 1334.0
        USD/NGN yesterday’s close 424
             
Please get in touch with us if you need the latest USD/NGN price

Oil prices pulled back on profit-taking on Friday after settling more than 4 percent higher a day earlier, following a surprisingly huge drawdown in U.S. crude stocks as Gulf Coast imports slumped to a record low.

South Africa’s rand gave up earlier gains against the dollar on Thursday, with traders expecting it to trade sideways for some time as nervous investors kept an eye out on possible moves against Finance Minister Pravin Gordhan. Growth in South Africa’s two key sectors slowed on Thursday, with weak activity renewing fears South Africa may struggle to avoid recession and a downgrade of its debt to junk status by year’s end. South African Finance Minister Pravin Gordhan, who is facing an investigation by police that the opposition has called a “witch-hunt”, said on Thursday that whether he remained in office was up to President Jacob Zuma.

Nigeria’s Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) has postponed elections in the southern state of Edo to Sept. 28 from Sept. 10 because of security threats, a government official said on Thursday.

 

What can I say. 2 incredible PMI numbers in the UK followed by a slightly disappointing Services number and the GBP gets knocked for 6. Down 150 points at one stage it just goes to show how volatile the GBP is not only to the upcoming Brexit negotiations but also to UK data. One could argue that the data will give the BoE reason to cut UK interest rates again to stimulate the economy. I do not agree. I think rates should stay at 0.25% and allow the economy and the currency to regularise itself. Already savers have been hit hard (not to mention mortgages) banks have cut saving rates and not passed on the rate cut to mortgage holders (excl tracker mortgages that follow the UK bank rates). I think (perhaps I am “talking my book”) once the panic selling has been extinguished we could see the GBP start to find some support and rally again. I just do not see any reason why the GBP was hit so hard. What could help is a Dovish member of the FED is giving a speech on Monday ( Lael Brainard) who has openly called for a delay in hiking rates. If she changes her stance then that could be a game changer and lead to a hike later this month. If she sticks to her guns then that will help those that are calling for a rate delay

Have a great weekend

 

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