The charts look designed for summer and indecision. The S&P 500 appears to have broken trend-line support, while the Dow its first cousin held it’s trend-line support. So what’s it going to be? A bounce back into trend or should we listen to the S&P? Decisions decisions…


And it’s not just equities. Currencies aren’t making any headway today. Cable is within pips of where I saw it at the close yesterday, I could say the same about EUR/GBP. The easy conclusion to draw from recent EUR/USD weakness is the disappointing Eurozone macro combined with exit strategies in the US and UK are starting to influence the currency pair. But it could be as simple as significant optionality at the 1.35 level. I believe EUR/USD vol markets are being dominated by exotics, and the recent moves are the result of gamma trading.


Yesterday’s tragic news in the Ukraine may have influenced sentiment, but markets are amoral creatures that are ultimately forward looking. It’s hard to see how what we all hope is a tragic accident can have application, but we must all be vigilant. What we do know is that USD/JPY hovers above key support levels again, as does EUR/USD. And a quick look at more exotic pairs like USD/MXN and USD/ZAR… and I come away thinking… not much right now.


In terms of data, this morning current account data for the Eurozone has just come out… it’s not exactly helping the case for a bearish EUR! Inflation data in Canada and Leading Index in the US to look forward to this afternoon. So…. Not much to change hearts and minds on that front.


Post 3pm London time might be of interest to observe – as we see how EUR/USD trading handles the post option cut. Not a super exciting close to the week…

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