Hope you had a good festive break and you received some useful gifts!!! Or was it another pair of socks/perfume/gift voucher/car/private jet!!!
Having taken a few days off last week I of course kept a close eye on developments and in particular the MIGHTY USD!!!
People sometimes ask where we came up with our name, PARITYFX. Given the amount of people talking about EURUSD trading at PARITY in the coming year (in other words: 1 EUR = 1 USD) I thought it would be a good idea to use this as my subject line. A terrific article written in the Telegraph newspaper says it all: “Dollar dominance to push currency towards PARITY with euro”. It goes on to say, “Experts say combination of tighter monetary policy in the US and the prospect of more loosening in the eurozone mean the single currency is on its way to PARITY with the dollar. The dollar will continue to strengthen in 2015, pushing it close to PARITY with the euro for the first time in more than a decade, experts believe. Data last week showed the US economy grew at an annual pace of 5% in Q3. Experts said the recovery would continue, preparing the ground for the US Federal Reserve to raise interest rates. Economists at Citibank said a combination of tighter monetary policy in the US and the prospect of more loosening in the eurozone meant the single currency was on its way to PARITY with the dollar. Citibank has forecast that one euro will only be worth $1.10 by next September, from around $1.22 today. It expects the euro to fall below PARITY to $0.99 in 2016 for the first time since December 2002.”
Citi Bank commented, the USD would also strengthen against the pound to $1.43 next year, from its current level of £/$ 1.5570. “The macro backdrop is very conducive to dollar strength, and that’s built around the idea that you’re going to see rates rising in the US, and rates stable to lower in the EU for a long time. History tells us that these trends may persist for longer than you might think. For us, EURUSD PARITY is a logical destination.”
Ultimately, the winner (other than the USD) will be GBP vs EUR with a move to 0.7000 (1.4300) on the cards by December 2015-Q1 2016. Trading at 0.7830 (1.2770) presently I think we will see a SERIOUS move take place over the first few weeks of January. I get the impression the momentum with the GBP is strong and a big swing is on the cards. My initial target is 0.7692 (1.3000) as the psychological break level.
Later today, Greek Prime Minister Samaras faces a vote in parliament that will decide whether the country goes to snap elections that could bring the leftwing Syriza party to power and derail an international bailout. Voting is due to start at midday (1000 GMT), with the result likely around an hour later. Underpinning the EUR, Jens Weidmann, a member of the ECB’s Governing Council and the president of Germany’s Bundesbank, told a newspaper on Sunday that growth in Germany – Europe’s biggest economy – might be better than expected next year, and that the situation in Europe is not as bad as many people think (or is he simply TALKING HIS BOOK). Weidmann is the most vocal opponent of quantitative easing, which some economists believe is the ECB’s last resort to revive the euro zone economy.
This week is light of course on the Economic calendar. However we will see US Consumer Confidence Tuesday (expect 93.2 vs previous: 88.7), China Manufacturing PMI Wednesday (Previous 49.50), and German Manufacturing PMI (expect 51.2 vs previous: 51.2).
So all eyes on Greece today, and I CANNOT STRESS THE IMPORTANCE OF THIS VOTE. The future of the EU as we know it is on the brink of a new crisis as the Greece’s parliament prepares to vote on a new president. The Greek government has so far failed in two rounds of voting to find the parliamentary majority it needs to have its presidential candidate approved later.Failure to win the vote on Monday morning will trigger a snap general election, under the Greek constitution, at a time when a far-Left party opposed to eurozone austerity leads in the opinion polls. The election of the popular Syriza party, which is opposed to austerity measures demanded by EU and IMF creditors in return for a Greek debt bailout, threatens the future of the euro. Gikas Hardouvelis, the Greek finance minister, warned on Sunday that the election of an anti-austerity could lead to punitive ECB economic sanctions against Greece.
A vote in favour of the far-Left party will in all likelihood send the EUR into another round of (serious) selling. Greece has for MANY YEARS been on everyone’s lips when talking about the 1 country in the EU MOST LIKELY to quit the EU. Of course we all think this just CAN’T HAPPEN….then again if we can put a man on the moon, what’s stopping Greece leaving the EUR!!! I guess you know what I mean. Heaven forbid. It will make the Lehman Brothers fiasco kids play.
Have a good day ahead and best wishes