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It really comes as no surprise that the GBP has been brutalised. Call it fat fingers call it “black box” selling call it what you like, the fact is the GBP was always facing brutality and round 2 has now happened. We correctly predicted back in June that if Brexit happens the GBP will fall to 1.25 and fall it has.
I mentioned many times in this commentary that what I found very strange during the referendum was the complete absence of the then Home Affairs minister Ms May. It all makes complete sense to me now. PM May was a LEAVE campaigner. I therefore have no doubt that ex PM Cameron probably asked Ms May to “take a back seat” in return for her being made PM should Brexit happen, or if not then PM once Cameron resigned ahead of the 2020 election. Pure political give and take. And so it would come to pass that Brexit happened and Ms May became PM May. With the dust settled Ms May has now started to play hard ball with the EU promising a hard Brexit. Promise as she “May” the EU have fought back saying if the UK want to control immigration then we will lose access to 500 mio potential customers. The UK cannot have one foot in and one foot out. It is all or nothing. So the markets responded to this rhetoric and smashed the GBP into the gutter. Have some of that.
With the UK a net importer of goods and services the weak GBP will wreak havoc with GBP and send the economy into freefall over the coming years. Ignore the current numbers as they mean nothing. I say that because as things stand we are still a member and enjoy the fruits of EU membership. Once Article 50 is announced and we start to lose access to the EU market then we can start to evaluate the severity of Brexit. It pains me still that 17.4mio people voted leave thinking they would be better off. How. How on G-D’s beautiful planet is that possible? You see as an importer of goods and services the weaker GBP is going to hurt every man women and child in this country. Prices WILL HAVE TO RISE STEEPLY as companies pass on the higher costs to their clients – you and I. To add to this, there are over 700,000 jobs that are currently open but which UK citizens refuse to accept as they believe they are not within their standing. Vegie and fruit pickers, bar and restaurant staff, supermarket packers, cleaners, security and other “lower” pay jobs. So tell me PM May who will fill the void once the process begins. Of the 3.5mio EU citizens working in the UK the majority will be allowed to stay. But what about generating NEW JOBS and expanding. Where will that sea of labour workers come from? Certainly not from here as low income families will prefer to bleed to country and stay on benefits. Why on earth would you wake up at 4am to pick carrots at £6.70/hr when you can get that and more in benefits? Why on earth would you wake up at 4am to get a bus (at a cost) to go clean a hotel (not to mention having to find someone to look after your kids at a cost). You get my point I am sure. Low income better benefits > low paid minimum wage jobs. And that my dear reader is why the UK is heading into the South Pole and be frozen out. Just writing this sends a cold chill down my spine.
On a separate note Friday saw the US publish NFP – 156k (lower than 167k expected). The number while in line with what we were expecting still leaves me thinking that come December the FED will go ahead and raise rates. If Hilary wins I think that will help the FED’s cause and I still think the FED will surprise us all and hike 50bps starting a USD rally that will take us into 2017 and set the tone and lay the groundwork for EURUSD – PARITY (1.00:1.00). As the USD rallies the GBP will suffer a double whammy, Brexit consequences and a USD rally. I cannot see any good news coming down the line.
Hope I have not ruined your week..
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